2024 has been a stellar year for Tadej Pogacar. The Tour de France, Giro d'Italia and the rainbow jersey as the cherry on the cake—it's a seemingly impossible list of victories in a single season. The Slovenian dominated every race he entered, making his competitors almost look like amateurs. Fans can't stop comparing Pogacar to cycling's GOAT Eddy Merckx. But is Tadej Pogacar really the new Eddy Merckx? Let's find out!
Let’s first explain why Eddy Merckx is THE reference in cycling. The Belgian won the Tour de France five times, the Giro d’Italia five times, the Vuelta a España once, was a triple World Champion, and claimed victory in 19 Monuments (7x Milano-Sanremo, 5x Liège-Bastogne-Liège, 3x Paris-Roubaix, 2x Il Lombardia, 2x Tour of Flanders). No other rider comes close.
Since the end of Merckx’s career, young exceptional talents are often compared to him. “Will {insert hot prospect} be as good as Merckx?”. “Has the next Merckx arrived?”. This isn’t just a Belgian habit—it’s universal. In sports, people are always searching for "Citius, Altius, Fortius". Is Lebron James the next Michael Jordan?
History has shown repeatedly that talents labeled the “next Merckx”, have never lived up to the hype; almost as if they were cursed. The truth is, this says more about the people making those statements (they are clueless), than the riders who supposedly underachieved in their eyes. To put it in perspective: it took half a century of cycling to encounter a rider like Eddy Merckx who is miles ahead of other cycling legends like Bernard Hinault and Fausto Coppi. What are the chances that every generation of cyclists would produce a young promising rider who could truly withstand the comparison to Merckx? Almost non-existent, wouldn’t you say?
Another half a century has passed since “The Cannibal” retired and suddenly there’s this pale kid from Slovenia who seems to be the next Merckx. Tadej Pogacar won the Tour de France at the exceptional age of 21 and continued stacking major victories since. You might think that being this good, this young, would leave little room for improvement. After all, Jonas Vingegaard beat Pogacar convincingly at the 2022 and 2023 Tour de France.
But nothing could be further from the truth. 2024 will go down in history as the year Tadej Pogacar won the 3 most prestigious races on cycling calendar: the Tour de France, Giro d’Italia and the World Championship. Only two riders in history have accomplished this feat before: Ireland’s Stephen Roche in 1987, and, of course, Eddy Merckx in 1974. 2024 will be a year to tell your grandchildren about—if they’re into cycling! So, has the time come to declare Pogacar the next Merckx?
I want to make clear that this blog post isn’t about proving whether Tadej Pogacar is a better rider than Eddy Merckx, or vice versa. Cycling in 2024 is a completely different sport from the 1970s, making direct comparisons futile. At best, we can attempt to create a points-based ranking like the King of the Echelon All-Time Cycling Ranking. But, no matter how hard we try, this can only result in a flawed mathematical representation; to be taken with a grain of salt—as I wrote in the blog post Pointless Rider Rankings Are Useful.
Let’s first take the qualitative approach to establish how Merckx-like, or “Merckxian”, Tadej Pogacar really is.
The rider
Versatility:
Like Merckx, Pogacar belongs to a rare breed of riders who excel in stage races and one-day races. His versatility in one-day races alone spans various terrains: from the cobbles of Flanders, over the gravel of Tuscany, to the hills of Lombardy.
Racing style:
Tadej Pogacar is undoubtedly the epitome of the aggressive racing style that flourished since 2020; along with the likes of Remco Evenepoel, Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert. A fearless urge to attack and long finals is a trait he has in common with Merckx—think of Eddy’s 104km long attack at the 1975 Tour of Flanders or his 140km solo ride in the Pyrenees during the 1969 Tour de France.
Dominance:
You don’t earn the nickname Cannibal without total domination over your rivals. While I never had the chance to see Merckx race, I’ve never seen a rider dominate like Pogačar did in 2024. The ease with which he won the most prestigious races was simply jaw-dropping.
The Achievements
Eddy Merckx achieved the “triple crown” in 1974 and realized the Tour-Giro double three times in total (1970, 1972, and 1974). I’m also including 1972 in the comparison, as that’s widely considered the best season Merckx ever had, and arguably the greatest in cycling history.
Tadej Pogacar 2024 | Eddy Merckx 1974 | Eddy Merckx 1972 | |
|---|---|---|---|
Grand Tours  | Tour de France
(6 stages)
Giro d’Italia (6 stages) | Tour de France (8 stages) Giro d’Italia (2 stages) | Tour de France (6 stages) Giro d’Italia (4 stages) |
World Championship  | 1st | 1st | 4th |
Monuments  | Liège-Bastogne-Liège Il Lombardia | Liège-Bastogne-Liège Il Lombardia Milano-Sanremo | |
Top-Tier Stage Races | Volta a Catalunya | Tour de Suisse | |
(Semi-)Classics | Giro dell’Emilia Strade Bianche GP Montreal | Giro dell’Emilia Flèche Wallonne Gran Piemonte Scheldeprijs | |
Other | Tour de France Points Classification |
It’s clear that Pogacar's 2024 season surpasses Merckx’s 1974, as the Cannibal didn’t manage to win a single Monument that year. In fact, Pogacar’s 2024 is undoubtedly the most successful season any rider has ever had. While Merckx’s 1972 included an extra Monument, Pogacar compensates for this with his world title and victory in a top-tier one-week stage race. Do we still need to ask whether Tadej Pogacar is the next Merckx? Pogacar isn’t just the first rider to come this close to Merckx—he’s actually the first to outdo Eddy Merckx in a single season.
The quantitative approach of the all-time ranking should obviously (and hopefully) support this claim. It’s important to note that the ranking also accounts for podium finishes. However, when comparing different eras, we can’t simply rely on yearly points totals, as certain races have disappeared while others have emerged in recent years. Instead, I prefer to use the ranking as a measure of dominance over their contemporaries: what percentage of points did Pogacar and Merckx earn in the yearly top 10 of the King of the Echelon ranking compared to their competitors? Here are the 10 most dominant seasons in history:
Season | Points | % points of the Top-10 |
|---|---|---|
| 2315 pts. | 37.25% |
| 2185 pts. | 35.55% |
| 1510 pts. | 35.18% |
| 1916 pts. | 33.05% |
| 1894 pts. | 32.75% |
| 1314 pts. | 31.35% |
| 1905 pts. | 31.34% |
| 1219 pts. | 31.18% |
| 1681 pts. | 30.22% |
| 1016 pts. | 28.40% |
According to this statistic (for what it’s worth), Tadej Pogacar is the second most dominant rider in a single season ever. The reason the scale tips slightly in Merckx’s favor is his higher number of podium finishes and the points that come with it (Paris-Nice, Gent-Wevelgem, E3 Harelbeke, Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, and more).
Need another proof of Tadej Pogacar's dominance in 2024? Here's the top-10 of the year according to the scoring system of the King of the Echelon Ranking.
Some argue that Merckx’s dominance was due to a lack of professionalism among his competitors—as if he were racing against local bakers or butchers. While it's obvious that today’s peloton is far more professional than in the 1970s and the level of competition has become so incredibly high nowadays, Merckx's main rivals did everything they could to be the best, according to the knowledge and practices of their time. Let’s take a closer look at the so-called "bakers" Merckx faced in 1972.
Felice Gimondi was one of the most accomplished and versatile riders in history, having won all three Grand Tours (1x Tour de France, 3x Giro d’Italia, 1x Vuelta a España), a World Championship in 1973, and four Monuments (Milano-Sanremo, Paris-Roubaix, and 2x Il Lombardia). The Italian ranks 10th in the King of the Echelon All-Time Cycling Ranking. His list of victories could have been even more impressive had he not competed against the phenomenon that was Eddy Merckx. Felice Gimondi often finished second to the Cannibal in major races like the 1972 Tour de France, the 1973 Giro d’Italia, the 1971 World Championship, the 1971 Milano-Sanremo, and the 1969 Tour of Flanders.
Roger De Vlaeminck is widely regarded as the greatest one-day rider of all time—second only to Merckx. The Belgian is one of the few riders to win all five Monuments, with 11 victories in total (Merckx has 19). Add to that numerous other classic wins and a record six victories at Tirreno-Adriatico, and it’s clear why "The Gipsy" ranks 6th in the all-time list of cyclists.
Raymond Poulidor never won the Tour de France or became World Champion. He only won one Grand Tour (the 1964 Vuelta a España) and one Monument (Milano-Sanremo in 1961). Yet the Frenchman was a key figure in cycling for an incredible 16 years, starting with a 5th place in the 1960 World Championship and ending with a 3rd place in the 1976 Tour de France. His long career and many high placings across a wide range of races earned "Poupou" the 13th spot in the King of the Echelon All-Time Cycling Ranking.
Do you want to know who else was on the Cannibal's plate in 1972? Click here to take a look at the top-10.
So, Is Tadej Pogacar the first true “next Eddy Merckx”? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to acknowledge that. But as far as I’m concerned, it’s way too soon to crown him the GOAT (Greatest of All Time). That title would require a few more "Merckxian" seasons like 2024. Fortunately, Pogacar is only 26, and every great champion needs a challenge, right? Who knows—maybe in a few years, we'll be talking about "Pogacarian" performances.
Do you think Tadej Pogacar will become the new cycling GOAT? Will he be able to win all 5 Monuments? Please leave a comment below!
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